SoHo and TriBeCa are two of those weird sorts of neighborhoods, where I can see the arguments both for and against a resurgence.
On the one hand, because it's landmarked, there will always be a dearth of inventory. And I've always believed that they're two of the prettiest neighborhoods in Manhattan. (The only one that really competes, aesthetically, is Greenwich Village.) So the arguments that it's a much safer neighborhood than almost any other make sense.
On the other, because land prices are so high, who in their right mind would try to build something? (At least now.) It's not as though you could just put up something cheap and shoddy when you have land costs like that. And who could get a construction loan for the hundred-plus million you would need to put up something plush and expensive?
But one thing is clear: the "can't miss" argument clearly seems to be debunked.