The great advantage of low expectations

On my way into work today, something a little frightening occurred to me...

Sarah Palin's disasterous first week might really redound to her credit in the debates against Joe Biden.

Let me explain: Back in 2000, everyone thought that George W. Bush was a sitting duck in the debates against Al Gore. There was no way that such a callow yutz as Bush was going to outshine a sitting vice president who had a sterling career as a senator and a vast reservoir of policy knowledge.

And then what happened? Bush walked away with it! For three debates!

Some said that Al Gore lost it because he came off as arrogant. (Which I think has a lot of merit. Watching it at home I winced after every sigh.) But I think Bush won it primarily because the media had set him up to fail. Because he didn't come off like a complete moron, those accusations of stupidity seemed thin. (Some, like the great James Fallows, insist that Bush is not a bad debater. But I'm not convinced.)

This might be exactly what happens with Sarah Palin.

A lot of people on the Democratic side are worried that Joe Biden might say or do something condescending to her in the debate that will endear her to female voters (think Rick Lazio). But I don't think so. First off, the Obama campaign is too smart not to have anticipated that. Biden will no doubt treat her with great respect. (And, besides, her debate is going to matter a lot less than the Obama versus McCain debate, anyway.) But if she can show some spunk and a basic mastery of detail, people will score it as a win.

Oy....

Mirror, mirror on the wall...

Is he the schlubbiest of them all?

Maybe.

Obviously, readers of this blog know that I've been pulling for Obama to select Joe Biden for veep, in part because I think he's the schlubbiest man for the job. But Tim Kaine gets off a crack in this CNN piece that I have to respect (at least schlub-wise): "My mom in Kansas City loves it when someone will talk about me as VP."

Wowzers. I sense a real kindred spirit.

Plus, I have to admit, the fact that David Brooks is pulling for Biden makes him a slightly less attractive candidate in my eyes. I know that that's not fair to Joe. And, truthfully, despite Kaine's latest pronouncement of maternal devotion, I still think Joe probably trumps him on most schlub issues.

But let's just say this schlub wouldn't be at all unhappy if it's Tim Kaine tomorrow.

Biden for VP!

And the schlub endorsement for VP goes to...

Joe Biden.

Frankly, I really don't care who gets the VP slot. I want whomever will most help Obama get to the White House. (In that sense, my other instinct would be to root for Tim Kaine of Virginia, a state which I think will really be in play this year.)

But Jonathan Cohn's post in The New Republic seals the deal for me -- if only for the first youtube clip when Biden is asked about Giuliani (and this isn't a clip I had seen before). The expression on Biden's face is absolutely brilliant -- that of a man with a sense of humor, but one who will not suffer fools lightly.

Plus, two other things:

I think that as we get closer to the election, there will be more hay made over racial politics and "playing the race card." The fact that Biden's campaign stumbled so badly out of the gate when he called Obama "clean" and "articulate" will make a lot of working class whites feel that Obama isn't a vindictive person in that he picked Biden. That he clearly sees a harmless gaffe for what it is, and isn't interested in playing racial politics. (And that he wants, instead, the best man for the job.)

Second, having watched Biden for many years, I have to say, he's... well, a bit of a schlub. Perfect for a vice president. I'm convinced.